Do disease prevalence and severity drive COVID-19 vaccine demand?

Large scale vaccination of population is widely accepted to be the key to recovery from the devastating economic and public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, low uptake of vaccine has challenged vaccination efforts in many parts of the world. The paper explores the determinants of demand for COVID-19 vaccination - specifically, the prevalence dependence hypothesis - that identifies infection prevalence and mortality as the key drivers of individual preventive behavior against infectious diseases. Using daily disease tracking and vaccination data from 47 European countries the paper finds strong evidence that COVID-19 infection rate and mortality rate drive future vaccination uptake. Specifically, results from fixed effects models suggest that while lagged infection prevalence induce vaccination uptake by 0.18 to 0.24 percent, while the effect of lagged mortality is significantly larger, ranging between 1.10 to 1.53 percent. The results highlight the critical role of behavioral response to epidemiological outcomes and are of critical significance for COVID-19 mitigation policies, especially as they relate to achieving vaccine-induced herd immunity and economic reopening.

Understanding the phases of vaccine hesitancy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Vaccine hesitancy is an important feature of every vaccination and COVID-19 vaccination is not an exception. During the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine hesitancy has exhibited different phases and has shown both temporal and spatial variation in these phases. This has likely arisen due to varied socio-behavioural characteristics of humans and their response towards COVID 19 pandemic and its vaccination strategies. This commentary highlights that there are multiple phases of vaccine hesitancy: Vaccine Eagerness, Vaccine Ignorance, Vaccine Resistance, Vaccine Confidence, Vaccine Complacency and Vaccine Apathy. Though the phases seem to be sequential, they may co-exist at the same time in different regions and at different times in the same region. This may be attributed to several factors influencing the phases of vaccine hesitancy. The complexities of the societal reactions need to be understood in full to be addressed better. There is a dire need of different strategies of communication to deal with the various nuances of all of the phases. To address of vaccine hesitancy, an understanding of the societal reactions leading to various phases of vaccine hesitancy is of utmost importance.